QUOTE (robwa @ Oct 16 2008, 08:31 PM)

Guys remember that unless you are buying from overseas, the place you are buying from locally will not be hit with massive price increases that you will have to pass onto their customers. Orders from international suppliers are made months ahead of when they get the goods so therefore we wont see the price hikes in oz for a wile if at all.
W R O N G !
Yes orders are made in advance - ALMOST 99% IF NOT ALL ORDERS ARE IN IN USD or EURO which just went through the floor!
So when you pay for the stock it is in USD or Euro and at the exchange rate of the day.
Very few companies are investing in futures which is how you lock in a rate.
So when you look at products like Hertz, Audison, Morel, DLS, Rockford, SoundStream, Dyn, Tru Tech. Arc, etc etc etc
all the "boutique" brands, well I would bank on a price rise. (I do not for one second speak for these brands I am just generally speaking)
I just had $50k USD worth arrive on Friday
That shipment was budgeted at around $59k + 4k Freight charges = $63k AUD LANDED COST
That shipment is NOW more likely to end up costing $80k + $4.8k = $84.8k AUD LANDED COST
For those that can't work it out - That is a 33% increase on landed cost.
With the dollar fluctuating wildly between 62 and 70 Aussie cents to the USD there will be an increase somewhere in the region of 21% to 37% depending on where the dollar lands and how much manufacturers and distributors can absorb.
Best case scenario 15% - 25% will be passed on.
The severity will depend on margins and where the last calculations were made, for example if as a wholesaler you made your last wholesale calculations based at say 70 cents to the USD (most would have made it at around 85 - 90 cents given the strength of the Aussie dollar of late) you would be in a position to hold your price, however if you were costring at say 80 or above, well you will have no option but to have an increase.
Most manufacturers do offer some terms ie. 30 account or 60 day account from invoice / shipping which we pray will be long enough for the dollar to move up a little before we have to pay the invoices, but as someone who has been through this before I know the best we can expect is maybe it will hit the 69 - 70 cent region.
Most wholesalers would at this time be consulting their crystal balls like crazy to make an educated guess at what point the dollar will land between where it was, and where it fell to.
Some of the really larger player "might" have a small degree of forward purchase protection but on the whole PRICES ARE RISING!
But don't take my word for it, ask any retailer and they will tell you last week their fax machines were nearly melting with the volume of faxes coming which were new price lists announcing price rises.
Prices are going up !